What is the point of the UN?
In 1899, the International Peace Conference was held in The Hague to elaborate instruments for settling crises peacefully, preventing wars and codifying rules of warfare. It adopted the Convention for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes and established the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which began work in 1902.
The forerunner of the United Nations was the League of Nations, an organization conceived in similar circumstances during the first World War, and established in 1919 under the Treaty of Versailles "to promote international cooperation and to achieve peace and security." The International Labour Organization was also created under the Treaty of Versailles as an affiliated agency of the League. The League of Nations ceased its activities after failing to prevent the Second World War.
In 1945, representatives of 50 countries met in San Francisco at the United Nations Conference on International Organization to draw up the United Nations Charter. Those delegates deliberated on the basis of proposals worked out by the representatives of China, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and the United States at Dumbarton Oaks, United States in August-October 1944. The Charter was signed on 26 June 1945 by the representatives of the 50 countries. Poland, which was not represented at the Conference, signed it later and became one of the original 51 Member States.
The purpose of the United Nations is to bring all nations of the world together to work for peace and development, based on the principles of justice, human dignity and the well-being of all people. It affords the opportunity for countries to balance global interdependence and national interests when addressing international problems.
There are currently 192 Members of the United Nations. They meet in the General Assembly, which is the closest thing to a world parliament. Each country, large or small, rich or poor, has a single vote; however, none of the decisions taken by the Assembly are binding. Nevertheless, the Assembly's decisions become resolutions that carry the weight of world governmental opinion.
The League's Council was transformed into the Security Council consisting of the five victors of the war as permanent members and ten other countries serving two year terms. The five permanent members - China, France, the UK, the USSR, and the US were also given veto power, which means that decisions taken by the Security Council can be blocked by any of the five permanent members. This is significant firstly because the Security Council is the principle UN organ responsible for ensuring peace, and, secondly, because it is the only body whose decisions are binding on all Member States. Since the creation of the UN the balance of Big Powers has changed and over one hundred new Member States, mainly non-Western, have joined. With these changes have come increasing demands to reform the Security Council.
In my opinion the UN and the Security council are clearly not working and are not effective.
In the last year six main issues spring to mind where the UN has failed to intervene often because countries like China or Russia uses their veto to block any resolution, this is not only endangering human life across the world but also putting the planet at risk.
Burma: A horrific military regime who suppresses the will of its people. Burma has voted in the past for a free and democratically elected governments its current real leader is under house arrest, Last years the Monks and the people tried to organize nation wide protest and they were brutally repress. The world stood by and watched, some countries tried to bring this to the world attention but again countries used their veto a nothing happened.
Zimbabwe: A brutal Dictator called Robert Mugabe has destroyed this fine country, again counties like south Africa protect him, countries like Russia and China uses their veto to stop the UN from intervening, in the mean time people die. South Africa say it is an internal problem but do not take into account what the population on the ground wants only what this illegal regime wants.
Darfur: Thousand and thousand of people have been killed, when the International criminal court tries to take action against its perpetrator, other non democratic countries block any resolution to help these pore suffering people, and the leader of Sudan get away with murder.
Global warning: At this rate there will be no Earth left for our children to inherit. To many countries trying to protect their personal interest, no one looks at the bigger picture.
Kosovo: A big mistake granting Kosovo independence, Kosovo in an integral part of Serbia it is a bit like if Cornwall was granted independence from the UK, or Brittany from France.Yes the Serbs were responsible for terrible atrocities but I don’t think this was the solutions. What about Tibet or Palestine why have we not been as forceful in backing their independence.
Palestine: This is the biggest concentration camp in the world and the longest running, the real shame in this story is that this camp in run by people who really suffered in the past and the hands of an evil regime and they don’t seem to realize that they are repeating crime under which they suffered. Why does the UN not take a firmer tome with Israel?
Some politicians are touting a new idea a League of Democracies, what is the point of a body like the UN if it comprises Democracies and dictatorship all combined under one roof. These two vastly opposite way of running countries are so far apart that they just can not run side by side. If countries that adhere to a strict code of democratically elected government got together, their consensus would be far easy to reach and agree without Moscow’s and Beijing’s approval for they seem to be always the ones blocking progress or a firm tone against repressive regimes. A group of like minded nations working together in the cause of peace.
It could act where the U.N fails; this is what John McCain said on the subject: Such a new body, he says, could help relieve suffering in Darfur, fight the AIDS epidemic in Africa, develop better environmental policies, and provide "unimpeded market access" to countries sharing "the values of economic and political freedom." And, McCain adds, an organization of democracies could pressure tyrants "with or without Moscow's and Beijing's approval" and could "impose sanctions" while helping struggling democracies succeed.
What is a democratic elected government
A form of government in which supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodic free elections. In a direct democracy, the public participates in government directly. Most democracies today are representative. The concept of representative democracy arose largely from ideas and institutions that developed during the European Middle Ages and the Enlightenment and in the American and French Revolutions. Democracy has come to imply universal suffrage, competition for office, freedom of speech and the press, and the rule of law
Government by the people exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
A political or social unit that has such a government.
The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.
Majority rule.
The principles of social equality and respect for the individual within a community.
Countries such as: Russia, Burma, China, Zimbabwe, Congo, Israel, Sudan…. which are either run by dictator, military regimes, One state parties, or major disrespect for human life can not join or trade with this new group and will be left out in the cold.
Is it time to dismantle the UN and reorganize with like minded countries that we can work with and try and encourage more countries to respect democratic values and what its people want? If so this must go both ways, it a country votes for a party we do not like we must respect the outcome and engage with them, for example the people of Gaza voted for Hamas and remember the old saying:
ONE MAN'S TERRORIST IS ANOTHER'S FREEDOM FIGHTER.
My personal views are that the UN is falling the people of the world, there is to much poverty and repression out there, if we are going to keep the UN the right of Veto of certain countries all countries must be dropped, countries who do not follow basic democratic values in their election can not have the same voting rights as counties who regularly switch from one parties to another. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Friday, 19 December 2008
Tuesday, 16 December 2008
Is Mbeki being black mailed
Is Mbeki being black mailed
As we are about to enter a new year 2009
Zimbabwe is looking more and more like an episode of Ground Hog Day where the same stories keep happening time and time again.
Back in March 2000 before the last general election this is what was happening on the ground.
(Zimbabwe is on the brink of a total economic collapse and facing a serious national crisis. The facts are simple. Twenty years ago Zimbabwe was a self sufficient country that could support itself and was a food exporting nation. After twenty years of one party rule, mismanagement, incompetence, and corruption, by the Government, Zimbabwe is dependent upon foreign aid, imports food, and is no longer able to sustain the import of its basic energy or raw material requirements. Businesses are faced with the prospect of closure. The President is actively encouraging the rule of anarchy in his bid to remain in power.) Published March 2000.
Nine years down the line what has changed nothing!
We would all like Mugabe to retire and go but who really is to blame?
In my view it is MBEKI.
This man has been the chief negotiator appointment by SADAC for over ten years and what has he done nothing, how can he look himself in the mirror every day and not feel sick. Why has he been allowed to carry on with negotiation when he is clearly on ZANU side? I always thought a negotiator should be neutral.
The more I think about it, Mugabe regime most have something on him, why would a man like Mbeki keep siding with Mugabe in the face of the destruction he is bringing on Zimbabwe, if these negotiations had been going on for a couple of years we could think that the slow action he is taking will bear fruits one day, but it has been over ten years.
So if Mugabe is bribing him to stall the negotiation talks, it would have to be vast sums for someone to be prepared to let millions die for their own gain but I personally think it is fare more serious than that.
The only possible explanation for Mbeki lack of courage and his non extant approach to these negotiations, the fact that he keeps defending Mugabe in the face of atrocities committed by his regime is that Mugabe must have something on him and must be black mailing him. It is the only possible solution why an educated man like Mbeki keeps siding with Mugabe and backing him up.
Any normal intelligent human being would see what terrible consequences Mugabe has brought on his own country, it is so blatant that ZANU is stealing from Zimbabwe that this regime is lining its pockets whilst million starve or die.
Mugabe latest denial of the Cholera outbreak cracks me up, has he gone mad is he not aware what his happening in Zim is he blind.
This is the moment for other African leaders to stand up and ask him to account for his actions. People are being kidnapped. Tortured and killed and still Mbeki defends him and from behind the scenes stops sanctions and action from happening.
What Mugabe must have on Mbeki must be so terrible and chocking that even in the face of all this death he does not dare to stand up to this corrupt regime and condemns it.
Is Mbeki Gay? Does he like young boys? Has Mugabe got video or compromising pictures of him? Zanu must have something on him, it is the only logical explanation for why Mbeki does not take a firm stand against Mugabe over the last ten years and has helped in the collapse of Zimbabwe.
So Mr. Mbeki if you are being black mailed why not come clean about your secrets surely it is better that letting millions of people suffer because you are ashamed of your actions, why have you not resigned from being the chief negotiator and let some one with balls take over the process.
You have already been sacked as a failing president your standing in the world is so low that the only humble course for you is to explain why you have been siding with Mugabe for the last 10 years apologies and go.
You have blood on your hands.
As for South Africa just get rid of Robert Mugabe the world will be a better place.
As we are about to enter a new year 2009
Zimbabwe is looking more and more like an episode of Ground Hog Day where the same stories keep happening time and time again.
Back in March 2000 before the last general election this is what was happening on the ground.
(Zimbabwe is on the brink of a total economic collapse and facing a serious national crisis. The facts are simple. Twenty years ago Zimbabwe was a self sufficient country that could support itself and was a food exporting nation. After twenty years of one party rule, mismanagement, incompetence, and corruption, by the Government, Zimbabwe is dependent upon foreign aid, imports food, and is no longer able to sustain the import of its basic energy or raw material requirements. Businesses are faced with the prospect of closure. The President is actively encouraging the rule of anarchy in his bid to remain in power.) Published March 2000.
Nine years down the line what has changed nothing!
We would all like Mugabe to retire and go but who really is to blame?
In my view it is MBEKI.
This man has been the chief negotiator appointment by SADAC for over ten years and what has he done nothing, how can he look himself in the mirror every day and not feel sick. Why has he been allowed to carry on with negotiation when he is clearly on ZANU side? I always thought a negotiator should be neutral.
The more I think about it, Mugabe regime most have something on him, why would a man like Mbeki keep siding with Mugabe in the face of the destruction he is bringing on Zimbabwe, if these negotiations had been going on for a couple of years we could think that the slow action he is taking will bear fruits one day, but it has been over ten years.
So if Mugabe is bribing him to stall the negotiation talks, it would have to be vast sums for someone to be prepared to let millions die for their own gain but I personally think it is fare more serious than that.
The only possible explanation for Mbeki lack of courage and his non extant approach to these negotiations, the fact that he keeps defending Mugabe in the face of atrocities committed by his regime is that Mugabe must have something on him and must be black mailing him. It is the only possible solution why an educated man like Mbeki keeps siding with Mugabe and backing him up.
Any normal intelligent human being would see what terrible consequences Mugabe has brought on his own country, it is so blatant that ZANU is stealing from Zimbabwe that this regime is lining its pockets whilst million starve or die.
Mugabe latest denial of the Cholera outbreak cracks me up, has he gone mad is he not aware what his happening in Zim is he blind.
This is the moment for other African leaders to stand up and ask him to account for his actions. People are being kidnapped. Tortured and killed and still Mbeki defends him and from behind the scenes stops sanctions and action from happening.
What Mugabe must have on Mbeki must be so terrible and chocking that even in the face of all this death he does not dare to stand up to this corrupt regime and condemns it.
Is Mbeki Gay? Does he like young boys? Has Mugabe got video or compromising pictures of him? Zanu must have something on him, it is the only logical explanation for why Mbeki does not take a firm stand against Mugabe over the last ten years and has helped in the collapse of Zimbabwe.
So Mr. Mbeki if you are being black mailed why not come clean about your secrets surely it is better that letting millions of people suffer because you are ashamed of your actions, why have you not resigned from being the chief negotiator and let some one with balls take over the process.
You have already been sacked as a failing president your standing in the world is so low that the only humble course for you is to explain why you have been siding with Mugabe for the last 10 years apologies and go.
You have blood on your hands.
As for South Africa just get rid of Robert Mugabe the world will be a better place.
Open Letter to Morgan Tsvangirai
Open Letter to Morgan Tsvangirai
Dear Sir
I would just like to say I wish there where more people in the world like you. Keep doing what you are doing, you will get there, Zimbabwe will be free again.
Everyone knows you won the election, the first round fair and square, even with Zanu rigging it by at least 30% you still came first; it was such a surprise to them that they postponed the results while trying to figure out what to do next. You are the real president-elect of Zimbabwe and the world should recognise you.
Shame on South Africa and SADAC for trying to force you to compromise with Mugabe the dictator; he should be dragged in front of the Hague with all his cronies. He is an old man and a day will come when he will no longer be with us, at this point his party will collapse and lose the support of SADAC and ZANU will be held to account.
My advice is not to enter a power-sharing deal, walk away.
30 years ago the world supported the liberation struggle and helped train people like Mugabe to take on those who would not share power. Well the time has come for the world once again to support a new Liberation war, a war for freedom and democratic values.
Zimbabwe is such a proud country but Mugabe who lives by the sword needs to die by the sword, it is the only language he understands. I am for peace and I hate wars but there comes a time where one must stand up for what one believes in and if talking cannot deliver it then maybe it is time for other measures. If Botswana is helping to train people to take on ZANU then great we should all help them and support them. There is no shame in this it is the right thing to do.
I live in London, my mother was born in Zim and so was her mother, I feel a kinship to this great country so if there is anything I can do, I am here to help.
I have posted various articles on my (FaceBook?) "Wall" and will keep trying to get them published and sending them to sites like http://www.zimbabwesituation.com/ and http://www.thetimes.co.uk/.
The time has come for the world to wake up; it is so obvious that Mugabe is a mad dictator who has lost the plot, the longer we wait for him to step down the longer it will take to rebuild Zimbabwe. He will be remembered not as a liberation hero but as a war criminal. Zanu should wake up to this, they have blood on their hands, they need to stop living for today and start thinking about tomorrow. How long do they think they can get away with such tyranny?
Rollo Miles, Supporter for a free Zimbabwe
Dear Sir
I would just like to say I wish there where more people in the world like you. Keep doing what you are doing, you will get there, Zimbabwe will be free again.
Everyone knows you won the election, the first round fair and square, even with Zanu rigging it by at least 30% you still came first; it was such a surprise to them that they postponed the results while trying to figure out what to do next. You are the real president-elect of Zimbabwe and the world should recognise you.
Shame on South Africa and SADAC for trying to force you to compromise with Mugabe the dictator; he should be dragged in front of the Hague with all his cronies. He is an old man and a day will come when he will no longer be with us, at this point his party will collapse and lose the support of SADAC and ZANU will be held to account.
My advice is not to enter a power-sharing deal, walk away.
30 years ago the world supported the liberation struggle and helped train people like Mugabe to take on those who would not share power. Well the time has come for the world once again to support a new Liberation war, a war for freedom and democratic values.
Zimbabwe is such a proud country but Mugabe who lives by the sword needs to die by the sword, it is the only language he understands. I am for peace and I hate wars but there comes a time where one must stand up for what one believes in and if talking cannot deliver it then maybe it is time for other measures. If Botswana is helping to train people to take on ZANU then great we should all help them and support them. There is no shame in this it is the right thing to do.
I live in London, my mother was born in Zim and so was her mother, I feel a kinship to this great country so if there is anything I can do, I am here to help.
I have posted various articles on my (FaceBook?) "Wall" and will keep trying to get them published and sending them to sites like http://www.zimbabwesituation.com/ and http://www.thetimes.co.uk/.
The time has come for the world to wake up; it is so obvious that Mugabe is a mad dictator who has lost the plot, the longer we wait for him to step down the longer it will take to rebuild Zimbabwe. He will be remembered not as a liberation hero but as a war criminal. Zanu should wake up to this, they have blood on their hands, they need to stop living for today and start thinking about tomorrow. How long do they think they can get away with such tyranny?
Rollo Miles, Supporter for a free Zimbabwe
The State of the London Property market
No one could have failed to notice that once again the property market is creating sensational headlines in the national press. The media are now reporting price drops of 25% - 30% from their peak in 2007. In real terms, we are back to prices of 2006
It should be noted that much of the media is commenting on the market as a whole throughout the UK and it must be remembered that London does not always follow the trends which may be occurring across the rest of the country.
Six months ago it was reported that nationally prices had dropped by 10% - 13%. As estate agents specialising in central London we knew that in the capital prices had by dropped far more then the margins reported due to the soar in prices we saw in 2007.
The vast majority of central London agents took this on board and six months ago began to readjust their property valuations to suit the mood in the city, dropping prices by 20%-30% leading the way for the rest of the country. Thus in London property prices have already been adjusted and the reports that are coming through now of another 30% drop in prices are far more applicable to the rest of the country, as in central London it has already happened. Due to the capital reacting to the financial crisis a few months ago property prices have already taken a substantial tumble which is now having a knock on effect across the country.
One crucial point that seems to be getting a little muddled with all the turbulence in the financial markets is that property is a long term investment. Looking at the history of house prices apart from the occasional blip prices have been steadily raising since records began. Over a decent period of time there is no doubt that your property will increase in value.
Home owners stay on average between 5 and 10 year in their current location, how much do you think your house will be worth in 10 years time?
(Traditionally London House prices double every 10 years).
Notting Hill and Ladbroke Grove are now back to 2006 price levels and buyer are seeing great value; The Bank of England has made a shock two-and-a-half percentage point cut in UK interest rates to 3%, the lowest level since 1955.
So If you are thinking of buying the key is to be realistic, make sure your estate agents understands your needs and wants, it is a buyer market so do not hesitate to make an offer, you just never know.
It should be noted that much of the media is commenting on the market as a whole throughout the UK and it must be remembered that London does not always follow the trends which may be occurring across the rest of the country.
Six months ago it was reported that nationally prices had dropped by 10% - 13%. As estate agents specialising in central London we knew that in the capital prices had by dropped far more then the margins reported due to the soar in prices we saw in 2007.
The vast majority of central London agents took this on board and six months ago began to readjust their property valuations to suit the mood in the city, dropping prices by 20%-30% leading the way for the rest of the country. Thus in London property prices have already been adjusted and the reports that are coming through now of another 30% drop in prices are far more applicable to the rest of the country, as in central London it has already happened. Due to the capital reacting to the financial crisis a few months ago property prices have already taken a substantial tumble which is now having a knock on effect across the country.
One crucial point that seems to be getting a little muddled with all the turbulence in the financial markets is that property is a long term investment. Looking at the history of house prices apart from the occasional blip prices have been steadily raising since records began. Over a decent period of time there is no doubt that your property will increase in value.
Home owners stay on average between 5 and 10 year in their current location, how much do you think your house will be worth in 10 years time?
(Traditionally London House prices double every 10 years).
Notting Hill and Ladbroke Grove are now back to 2006 price levels and buyer are seeing great value; The Bank of England has made a shock two-and-a-half percentage point cut in UK interest rates to 3%, the lowest level since 1955.
So If you are thinking of buying the key is to be realistic, make sure your estate agents understands your needs and wants, it is a buyer market so do not hesitate to make an offer, you just never know.
News Flash On Zimbabwe
I think this pictures says it all: If so called Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa can not even hang the picture of his leader correctly, what hope is there? They are a real Mickey Mouse regime and we should laugh them out of office.
News Flash On Zimbabwe
Mr. Mugabe last week sparked uproar by claiming the cholera outbreak was over in Zimbabwe, while Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu said the outbreak was the result of biological warfare launched by former colonial power Britain against Zimbabwe.
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa told state media they have "compelling evidence" Botswana was hosting military training camps for opposition rebels.
Have the above people all lost the plot; they must be in such a desperate state to come up with such desperate lies.
What a jock, South Africa: wake up! Do you think these people are serious, do you think they want the best for Zimbabwe?
The time has come for sanction! South Africa says it does not want to hurt the people of Zimbabwe. Wake Up call, they are already hurting and it can not really get worst, so go on have the courage to tell Mugabe to go, his time is up.
It is not just Mugabe tell the jokers: Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa who buy the way should not be referred to as minister for they are not that they too will be held to account.
If you had the courage to Stand up to this regime, to cut off their power, to stop fuel from entering it would not be long before this illegal regimes implodes.
As for their claims against Botswana, I really do hope that Botswana is helping to train opposition supporters in the arts of war and I can see nothing wrong with this. Did the countries surrounding Zimbabwe not help or even Host camps and training facilities during the liberation struggle to help bring down Ian Smith Government, surely you must all see that the Mugabe regime is far worst that the previous one, that the suffering of the people of Zimbabwe in 100 times what is was during the liberation war, so go go Botswana you have nothing to fear, history will be on your side and if Mugabe tries anything against you he will be crushed.
Open Letter to Mr Cameron with ideas on the economy
Dear Mr. Cameron
I am a local estate agent living and working in W10, and have been for the last 10 years. I just wanted to touch base with you about the state of the current market and what I feel is happening on the ground.
Please bear in mind I spend my days talking and spending time with "real people" looking to either sell or buy a home, listening to their fears and what they think is happening.
This is the real state of the market in W10: first we agents were aware that the market had dropped by at least 20% 6 months ago, the press and the government were talking about 10%-15% but finally they caught up with us and are now talking about a price adjustment across the country of 30%. - 35%
In Kensington And Chelsea we are ahead of the game and are already trading at this level, in fact we are back to figures of 2006. So if you want to know what property is worth go to www.nethouseprice.com and see what 2006 levels were and what is today’s price. In the worst case scenario we could go back to 2005 levels 50% off last years peak, but this all depends on lending.
In fact the main problem is lending, I have plenty of buyers who really want to buy. A lot of them are now seeing true value, they know the market has changed, they also know we are in a buyer's market and they can make offers 10 % below asking price. sometimes more. It is a more pleasant environment to trade in then in the last couple of years, not so aggressive, less hype and less guzumping.
So when I listen to Radio 4 and they are saying that buyers do not want to buy and we should just leave the mortgage market alone, they are wrong. The problem is people cannot get mortgages and therefore houses are not selling, so estate agents are pushing prices down until they sell. So if we don't do something soon the market will be back to levels of 2005, which in real terms is probably 40% - 50% down on the peak of last year. At the moment most people who bought their houses in 2006 have a house worth the same as they paid for it then or in some cases less. So it is vital to get the housing market moving again.
The Labour party says that the Conservatives are doing nothing and not coming up with any ideas, so here are a couple that would get things moving; also let's not forget that the whole UK financial market is linked to the property market.
First, property transactions are down 60%-70% on this time last year so the Government is getting very little Stamp Duty. So Stamp Duty either needs to be dropped or suspended for 2 years - this would be a bold move, but only bold moves will achieve anything.
Second, a new law needs to be passed putting a cap on mortgage lending, something like a 90% of the property value, so lenders can never go back to their dangerous lending levels, where in some cases they were lending up to 100% - 120% of the value of properties.
Finally, the Labour Government keeps talking about doing whatever it takes to get the market moving, so they have recently nationalized two banks. Northern Rock and Bradford and Bagley are 100% owned by the taxpayer. So why are they not offering some good mortgage deals? They need to be ahead of the game. If Northern Rock was to offer a 25-year repayment mortgage at less say 5% other banks will follow suit. At the same time why do these banks not offer good overdrafts or loans to business that have a sound business plan or model?
These measures would really get things moving. You might say we can’t do this because of competition rules, but the Government has shown with their recent mergers that all standard rules are out of the window and if Europe objects, so what! As Labour says: extreme times need extreme measures.
I really think that next time the Government says you are not coming up with solution or when your are interviewed on Radio 4 and asked to give examples of things you would do to stimulate the economy, these are real solutions that the public will buy into. Use their words: "Extreme times demand extreme measures"; they will "do everything in their power to help the British people".
The more the market is talked down the worse it is going to get. I am not worried about deflation, I think this is quite short-term. I am still worried about inflation, I can see interest rates rising in the next couple of years. So if you win the next election you will inherit a real mess.
You need to knock Gordon Brown off his pedestal, and you will only do that by offering real solutions that he cannot compete with.
On this point I wanted to talk with you about the next bombshell or the next bust. This is the amount of interest-only mortgages out there
I would say that 80 % of my buyers in the last 5 years have bought property on interest-only loans; this means you pay off the interest on the loan monthly not the capital. When you take out one of these mortgages - which in principle are more affordable than repayment ones - you are supposed to get an ISA and invest into it, so after the term of your mortgage expires, your ISA have grown to levels which will repay your loan.
But there was no regulation on this or even worse no supervision, so I would say of the 80% of interest only mortgagors I am aware of, less than 60% bothered to take out a ISA. No-one checks that interest-only mortgages customers have an ISA or are contributing to it. Meanwhile those who do have lost out with the recent stock market fluctuation so I don’t think their ISAs are worth much (mine definitetly is not). So what is going to happen in 15-20 years when these mortgages come to an end and home owners realize that they have not paid off their house? I can see a real problem brewing. Again this is all about Gordon Brown and his relaxed approach.
I am sure that you and your team are aware of some or all of the above, but from someone who works on the ground and interacts with buyers and sellers every day things are not looking great.
If you would like to discuss these matters further please do not hesitate to contact me.
Yours sincerely
Rollo Miles
I am a local estate agent living and working in W10, and have been for the last 10 years. I just wanted to touch base with you about the state of the current market and what I feel is happening on the ground.
Please bear in mind I spend my days talking and spending time with "real people" looking to either sell or buy a home, listening to their fears and what they think is happening.
This is the real state of the market in W10: first we agents were aware that the market had dropped by at least 20% 6 months ago, the press and the government were talking about 10%-15% but finally they caught up with us and are now talking about a price adjustment across the country of 30%. - 35%
In Kensington And Chelsea we are ahead of the game and are already trading at this level, in fact we are back to figures of 2006. So if you want to know what property is worth go to www.nethouseprice.com and see what 2006 levels were and what is today’s price. In the worst case scenario we could go back to 2005 levels 50% off last years peak, but this all depends on lending.
In fact the main problem is lending, I have plenty of buyers who really want to buy. A lot of them are now seeing true value, they know the market has changed, they also know we are in a buyer's market and they can make offers 10 % below asking price. sometimes more. It is a more pleasant environment to trade in then in the last couple of years, not so aggressive, less hype and less guzumping.
So when I listen to Radio 4 and they are saying that buyers do not want to buy and we should just leave the mortgage market alone, they are wrong. The problem is people cannot get mortgages and therefore houses are not selling, so estate agents are pushing prices down until they sell. So if we don't do something soon the market will be back to levels of 2005, which in real terms is probably 40% - 50% down on the peak of last year. At the moment most people who bought their houses in 2006 have a house worth the same as they paid for it then or in some cases less. So it is vital to get the housing market moving again.
The Labour party says that the Conservatives are doing nothing and not coming up with any ideas, so here are a couple that would get things moving; also let's not forget that the whole UK financial market is linked to the property market.
First, property transactions are down 60%-70% on this time last year so the Government is getting very little Stamp Duty. So Stamp Duty either needs to be dropped or suspended for 2 years - this would be a bold move, but only bold moves will achieve anything.
Second, a new law needs to be passed putting a cap on mortgage lending, something like a 90% of the property value, so lenders can never go back to their dangerous lending levels, where in some cases they were lending up to 100% - 120% of the value of properties.
Finally, the Labour Government keeps talking about doing whatever it takes to get the market moving, so they have recently nationalized two banks. Northern Rock and Bradford and Bagley are 100% owned by the taxpayer. So why are they not offering some good mortgage deals? They need to be ahead of the game. If Northern Rock was to offer a 25-year repayment mortgage at less say 5% other banks will follow suit. At the same time why do these banks not offer good overdrafts or loans to business that have a sound business plan or model?
These measures would really get things moving. You might say we can’t do this because of competition rules, but the Government has shown with their recent mergers that all standard rules are out of the window and if Europe objects, so what! As Labour says: extreme times need extreme measures.
I really think that next time the Government says you are not coming up with solution or when your are interviewed on Radio 4 and asked to give examples of things you would do to stimulate the economy, these are real solutions that the public will buy into. Use their words: "Extreme times demand extreme measures"; they will "do everything in their power to help the British people".
The more the market is talked down the worse it is going to get. I am not worried about deflation, I think this is quite short-term. I am still worried about inflation, I can see interest rates rising in the next couple of years. So if you win the next election you will inherit a real mess.
You need to knock Gordon Brown off his pedestal, and you will only do that by offering real solutions that he cannot compete with.
On this point I wanted to talk with you about the next bombshell or the next bust. This is the amount of interest-only mortgages out there
I would say that 80 % of my buyers in the last 5 years have bought property on interest-only loans; this means you pay off the interest on the loan monthly not the capital. When you take out one of these mortgages - which in principle are more affordable than repayment ones - you are supposed to get an ISA and invest into it, so after the term of your mortgage expires, your ISA have grown to levels which will repay your loan.
But there was no regulation on this or even worse no supervision, so I would say of the 80% of interest only mortgagors I am aware of, less than 60% bothered to take out a ISA. No-one checks that interest-only mortgages customers have an ISA or are contributing to it. Meanwhile those who do have lost out with the recent stock market fluctuation so I don’t think their ISAs are worth much (mine definitetly is not). So what is going to happen in 15-20 years when these mortgages come to an end and home owners realize that they have not paid off their house? I can see a real problem brewing. Again this is all about Gordon Brown and his relaxed approach.
I am sure that you and your team are aware of some or all of the above, but from someone who works on the ground and interacts with buyers and sellers every day things are not looking great.
If you would like to discuss these matters further please do not hesitate to contact me.
Yours sincerely
Rollo Miles
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